History, reality at odds in flood outlook

• Slim odds

Slim odds

Talk about it

Meteorologists reckon that Fargo-Moorhead faces a 96 percent chance of witnessing a major flood this spring.

The moisture base, including the wettest winter on record, seems to virtually assure the Red River will reach major flood stage, 30 feet or more.

But in terms of the historical record, a major flood this year, on the heels of last year’s record flood, would appear to be slim.

In Fargo, back-to-back major floods have occurred only three times in the 113 years of recorded meteorological history, figures compiled by the North Dakota state climatologist show.

That means the chance of fighting a major flood two years in a row is 2.6 percent, climatologist Adnan Akyuz said Wednesday.

And the historical record illustrates the importance that the spring thaw has on the magnitude of flooding, he said.

Few people today realize that 1937 was the third-snowiest winter on record, with 57.9 inches of snow, and the 13th wettest, with 3.09 inches of moisture.

Yet the Red River crested that year at a meager 10.17 feet, thanks to mostly cool or cold temperatures and a lack of significant moisture during a gradual thaw.

“That kept us from disaster,” Akyuz said.

On the other hand, 2006 produced the fifth-highest flood crest, 37.13 feet, after a middling winter with 44.3 inches of snow containing 2.15 inches of moisture – and a dramatic spike in temperatures in late March and early April.

If this spring thaw resembles 1937, which had a slow melt except for a warm blip in early March, it would lead to a tame flood, Akyuz said.

“So the good news is there is still light at the end of the tunnel,” he said.

In its flood outlook Friday, the National Weather Service predicted Fargo-Moorhead has a 25 percent chance of a flood similar to last year’s 40.84 crest.

The thaw cycle and any significant rains will be critical in determining actual flood levels, the weather service said. The outlook for the next 14 days, meanwhile, appears dry.

Readers can reach Forum reporter Patrick Springer at (701) 241-5522

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