Hot Topic: Tax on soda proposed as way to fight diabetes

Death by soda?

A new study in the journal Health Affairs estimates that a penny-per-ounce tax on soft drinks and other sugary beverages could prevent about 240,000 cases of diabetes per year and 8,000 strokes and 26,000 premature deaths over a decade (or 2,600 per year).

But how realistic is that estimate?

The paper’s author, Kirsten Bibbins-Domingo, a general internist at San Francisco General Hospital and an associate professor at the University of California, San Francisco, explains the methodology and reasoning.

When people consume lots of sugary drinks, “we know there’s a risk of gaining weight,” Bibbins-Domingo says. Studies have demonstrated this. “And we know weight gain is linked to increased risk of heart disease and (Type 2) diabetes.”

Bibbins-Domingo and her team relied upon findings from a range of observational studies and clinical trials that have evaluated these connections to figure out how many deaths a soda tax could prevent.

She also included data from the Framingham Heart Study, which has tracked the health of thousands of residents of Framingham, Mass., since the 1940s. And the team fed all these data into a computer model, which gave them their data on the health effects of the soda tax.

In general, they assume that if the price of soda rises, people will buy less of it.

But researchers are divided.

Prior real-world attempts to actually implement a soda tax haven’t gone over so well. The District of Columbia came close in 2010. But ultimately the City Council killed it.

Just this week, a physician in Portland, Ore., began rallying behind the idea that a penny-per-ounce tax on sweetened beverages could help reduce the heavy burden of lifestyle diseases. According to this report, Gregg Coodley is advocating for a soda tax ballot initiative in November in Multnomah County. But the American Beverage Association has called the proposed tax unfair and discriminatory.

Source: NPR food blog The Salt

Tags: hot topics, life, shesays, health