From a forecaster’s perspective, the weather during September and October tends to be the quietest of the year in our region. The summer severe weather season is winding down. Although a late-season hailstorm or even a rare autumn tornado are still possibilities, such things become statistically more rare with each passing day.

Rain amounts tend to decrease in fall, too. Fall floods are very rare, although a heavy rainstorm can cause urban flood problems, especially if street drains become blocked with leaves.

The first frost can be a big deal if it happens early, but if the first frost happens in late September or October, it has little or no impact except to kill garden annuals that realistically had little time left anyway.

The average first snowflakes come in October with the average first measurable snow around Halloween, but snow that stays through the winter is unlikely before November or December. We still come to work and forecast the daily weather, but the conditions are less stressful this time of year.

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