Does cold keep the riff-raff out?

Fargo's frigid cold might not keep the riff-raff out, as the saying goes, but winter does slow them down when it comes to certain crimes.

Monthly crime statistics for the city of Fargo show the rate of property crimes tends to follow roughly the same path as the mercury in a thermometer - higher in the summer, lower when winter comes.

Yet personal crime is far steadier, with less change from month-to-month, the same statistics show.

It's a dynamic area police say matches with their anecdotal observations.

"It's kind of crazy, but weather does play a part in crimes," said Detective Sgt. Greg Warren of the West Fargo Police Department.

Using five-year monthly averages of Fargo's crime statistics, the three coldest months, December through February, saw 9.1 property crimes per day. During the three warmest months, June to August, there was an average of 14.5 property crimes reported per day.

For personal crimes, the three coldest months saw 3.4 crimes per day, while in the summer months there was a daily average of 3.9.

So the differential in the property crime rate from winter to summer is about 60 percent, whereas it's 15 percent for personal crime.

Personal crimes include drug and alcohol violations as well as physical and sexual assaults. Offenses like unauthorized vehicle entry, thefts, burglaries and criminal mischief are labeled as property crimes.

Police said the reason the property crimes dip in the winter and personal crimes remain static is the nature of the offenses.

Lt. Pat Claus, investigations commander for Fargo police, said crimes of violence such as assaults can happen indoors and are often spur of the moment.

"It's driven by emotion," he said.

The frequency of the other main contingent of personal crimes - drug and alcohol offenses, drunken driving included - don't fluctuate with the weather because they're fueled by addiction, Warren said.

"It's more of a need," he said.

Fargo drug offenses, for instance, were highest in February, at an average of 64, and December saw the least with 48. October drew the most drunken driving cases with 82, with lowest being 63 in July.

Thefts, mischief and car entries are influenced by temperature because they are crimes of opportunity, said Moorhead police Lt. Tory Jacobson.

Instead of cold weather putting a damper on those sorts of crimes, Jacobson said he thinks of it more as the summer months creating additional targets for criminals.

"The reality is, it's the opportunity. It happens to be that people are outside more," he said. "When it warms up, it (property crimes) goes up."

That's why law enforcement puts such a focus on crime prevention education, Jacobson said: Reducing opportunities works.

Claus said Fargo police regularly track crime rates for recent weeks and compare them to the same periods in past years. They use the numbers to strategize about how to focus attention in various ways, such as geographic areas requiring more patrols.

But police hadn't taken a specific look at the month-by-month ebb and flow until The Forum requested the information. It could be that a seasonal study of the statistics might raise some questions about how to allocate resources, he said.

For example, Claus said: "Do we need to keep a higher minimum staffing in the summer?"

Readers can reach Forum reporter Dave Roepke at (701) 241-5535