Fargo may be growing overall, but a graying population and smaller families have put the school district in a long-term pinch.
Here are some of the demographic and development issues facing the School Board as they decide when and where to build, pair or close schools, particularly on the city's north side.
- Community growth: Fargo has grown at an annual rate of 2.3 percent for the past 30 years. During this time, the School District's student enrollment peaked in 1998 and has since declined. However, even during this period of overall growth, district officials say schools north of Interstate 94 have seen enrollment declines.
Growth is slowing considerably, too. The growth rate from 2000-2015 is expected to be 1.1 percent and from 2015 to 2035 dip to an anemic 0.6 percent. Maintaining a 2.3 percent rate of growth would require tripling in-migration, School District administrators say.
- Family sizes: Families are shrinking as the population grays and fewer children are born.
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The average family size in Fargo in 2000 was 2.91 persons. In 2005, that had dipped to 2.77 persons.
In contrast, nationally family sizes grew from an average of 3.14 people in 2000 to 3.18 people in 2005.
- Household sizes: Households also are shrinking.
The average household size in Fargo in 2000 was 2.2 people. In 2005, that has shrunk to 2.08 people per household. In the meantime, the national average in 2000 was 2.59, rising modestly to 2.6 people in 2006.
- Rental conversions: Most of the single-family homes being converted to rental properties are found north of Interstate 94. The conversions are most common near North Dakota State University. Hard-hit in the past few years has been the Roosevelt Elementary area.
- Development: The Northfield First Addition (north of County Road 20) is an Eid-Co Development project. About 241 homes are planned over 12 years. The number of elementary school-age children from the development is expected to be two this year, 20 by the year 2012, and 50 by 2017.
If Eid-Co start a Northfield Second Addition before finishing the First Addition, it would likely generate two more elementary-age students by 2012, and 20 by 2017.
Overall, development is not expected to be swift. There are only 1.5 sections in Fargo north of County Road 20 usable for housing, few lots near the river and no plans for the Van Raden mobile home park or Pony Land east of the airport.
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Roers Development does plan a retail and housing complex at University Drive and 19th Avenue North.
Readers can reach Forum reporter
Helmut Schmidt at (701) 241-5583
