Mild early spring weather in the Red River Valley offers a "glimmer of sunshine in an otherwise gloomy" flood outlook, with predictions still calling for major flooding.
Two weeks of dry weather and gentle thawing - with the prospect for more of the same in the next two weeks - combined to produce a dip in projected river levels.
"The general risk factor for major flooding continues," meteorologist Greg Gust said, adding the chances are "nearly the same up and down the valley."
Major flood stage in Fargo-Moorhead starts at 30 feet. The Red has a 50 percent chance of reaching 38 feet in Fargo-Moorhead, slightly down from a 50 percent chance of topping 38.6 feet from the Feb. 19 outlook.
The slight decrease in predicted levels largely stems from extra storage capacity that will be available from releases of several dams on tributaries, Gust said.
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But with ground saturated and frozen, and rivers already running at above-normal levels, the southern Red River Valley remains vulnerable to severe flooding if heavy rains coincide with the thaw.
Therefore, Fargo-Moorhead faces a 20 percent chance of a 40.6-foot river level, near last year's record 40.84 feet flood. In the last flood outlook, the chance of reaching 41 feet was 20 percent.
South of Fargo-Moorhead, the southern Red River Basin averages 1.75 to 2 inches from now until mid-April, Gust said.
"We'd need probably just a little bit more than that to trigger a 2009 flood," he added.
The likelihood of a more gradual onset of flooding this year, compared to last year's rapid rise, leaves officials in Fargo-Moorhead worried that volunteers won't rally to the sandbag barricades with the same gusto as last year.
If heavy rains do come, as they did last year and in 1997, communities could have to scramble to keep up with the river's rise, said Tom Fischer, chairman of the Joint Cass County Water Resource Board.
"That's why it's important to get ahead of this," he said.
Cities are working to stockpile sandbags, but progress toward the goal of filling 1 million in Fargo and 300,000 in Moorhead got off to a slow start this week.
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"There is no sense of urgency right now," Fischer said.
Among tributaries, significant flooding still is expected on the Sheyenne River from Valley City to Lisbon and Harwood.
Possible flood levels dipped a few inches on the Wild Rice River at Abercrombie - but the Wild Rice and Sheyenne have been called "hydrological hotspots," with overland flooding likely as those rivers leave their banks.
Only minor moisture is expected this weekend, as a storm is expected to hit the Central Plains. But as the spring progresses, storm tracks likely will creep north, forecasters said. The next flood outlook is due March 19.
Readers can reach Forum reporter Patrick Springer at (701) 241-5522
