I was standing at the grocery store checkout line one day this week when the cashier asked me if it was true that winter forecasting is easier than summer forecasting. I thought for a minute. Then I said that the two are certainly different.
Summer storms are much smaller than most winter storms. A thunderstorm might be a few miles across, and a line of thunderstorms might cover several counties. Weather changes minute by minute.
Winter storms range in size from several counties to several states. Changes tend to occur more on an hourly basis. Public expectations are different: A summer storm forecast with a mention of locally heavy rain satisfies people in summer, whereas the winter storm forecast must include the precise number of inches of snow.
So summer and winter forecasting are two very different enterprises. I am not sure I can say that either one is easier.
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