With a La Nina (cold water phase) already developed in the Pacific Ocean, you often hear that means the winter will likely be cold and snowy.
The problem with that statement is there is no statistical basis for it. There are certainly strong climatological reasons to think the upcoming winter will be colder than average, as 25 out of the 31 La Nina winters since 1881 have been colder than average here in Fargo-Moorhead.
But since 1881, more winters have been drier than average, both for precipitation and snowfall, than wetter than average during La Nina, although the percentage is far lower statistically than with temperatures.
The reality is, we have seen both very wet and very dry La Nina winters, but the overall average slightly favors dry to normal precipitation. No one knows what the winter will bring, but the point is, just because there is a La Nina does not guarantee any type of weather this upcoming winter season.
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