Weather Talk: More to flood predictions than just water in snow

Each time we get a little more snow, the question is always, "What does this mean for the flood?"

But the answer is always unclear at this point in the process. The flood outlook is given in a range of percentages throughout the late winter and early spring. No specific crest predictions are possible until most of the snow has melted and the water is gathering in the tributaries.

This is because there is more to predicting floods than just the water in the snow. The rate of melt is a huge factor.

For example, the water in the snow was far greater in 1997, but the crests were higher in 2009 because of a fast melt. So we cannot know what effect precipitation will have on the crests at this point.

The current outlooks are made with the idea that some rain and snow will fall in March and April, and the range of crest possibilities are a reflection of this.

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