The recent spell of warm and dry weather has many people asking if the summer will be hot and dry. Based just on statistics, there is no connection between the weather in early spring and the weather in high summer.
Long-range weather predictors such as El Nino are generally not as useful for predicting summer weather because summer rainfall tends to come from localized thunderstorms, and summer temperatures can be heavily influenced by local soil moisture conditions, which are also determined by localized thunderstorms.
The Climate Prediction Center of the National Weather Service is predicting a generally cool summer with wet weather especially in June.
My own observations of the weather patterns lead me to believe the opposite, that the summer has a fairly high chance of being warmer and drier than average. Last summer was very cool, so even a slightly above-average summer will seem hot.
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