The Climate Prediction Center has issued its forecast for the Atlantic hurricane season, which officially starts tomorrow. The developing El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean will likely reduce, somewhat, the threat of organized tropical storms across the Atlantic, the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and along the Southeast and East coasts of the U.S.
The forecast calls for a 70 percent chance of a below-average number of storms, a 20 percent chance of near average, and a 10 percent chance of above-average activity.
Of course, the number of hurricanes is not nearly as important as their locations. If one bad hurricane strikes a metropolitan area, it is effectively a bad season.
El Niño causes the Atlantic Basin upper level winds to strengthen. Hurricanes are much more likely to grow strong in an environment of weak upper level winds.
Have a weather question you’d like answered? Email
weather@wday.com
,
or write to WDAY Stormtracker, WDAY-TV, Box 2466, Fargo, ND 58108
Read the blog at
http://www.stormtrack.areavoices.com
