Weather Talk: Weather forecasting isn’t like predicting next eclipse

The big New York City storm that failed to live up to some expectations offers an opportunity for this forecaster to vent from a distance.
1) Weather forecasting is not like predicting the next moon eclipse. Weather is much harder. Some forecasters are better than others, but none of us are impervious to missing badly sometimes, even the National Weather Service in New York City.
2) Forecasts on social media and newsprint, even if from a good source, may be harmfully outdated. Storms like this one are dynamic, so a forecast from even six hours ago may be old. With weather, live is better. But expect updates and changes.
3) Understand that comments about approaching weather possibly setting records are based on a forecast. There is no record until the weather has happened. Therefore, talk of a global warming connection to extreme weather is premature.
4) The oft-lauded European weather model missed this one. There’s a heckuva lot more to forecasting than picking the best model.
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