McFeely: Pollster who correctly called Heitkamp’s 2012 race pushes back (sort of) on latest ND survey

There is history with a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in North Dakota being given a 10-point polling margin over Heidi Heitkamp. It involves my newspaper, The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead, and became the state's own "Dewey Defeats Truman" moment. T...

There is history with a Republican U.S. Senate candidate in North Dakota being given a 10-point polling margin over Heidi Heitkamp.

It involves my newspaper, The Forum of Fargo-Moorhead, and became the state’s own “Dewey Defeats Truman” moment.

The Forum released a poll in late October 2012, conducted by Essman Research of Des Moines, Iowa, that showed Fargo businessman Rick Berg leading Heitkamp by 10 points, 50 percent to 40 percent with 10 percent undecided. Republicans praised the poll, of course, and Democrats shredded it because they said it undersampled Democratic voters.

Turns out the margin was not 10 percent, nor was it in favor of Berg. Heitkamp won the race by less than a percentage point, 50.2 to 49.3, in one of the great upsets of that political cycle.

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