At this point in his first term, President Bush has popularity and job approval ratings so high, it's almost inconceivable that any Democrat could beat him for re-election in 2004.
How quickly we forget.
Twelve years ago the president's father, George Herbert Walker Bush, was enjoying popularity ratings above 90 percent. The elder Bush had successfully waged war against Iraq and had won the nation's confidence as a strong foreign policy president.
But the economy was wobbly. Democrats seized upon economic uncertainties. Aa relatively obscure southern governor, Bill Clinton, won the White House and stayed there for eight years.
In 2003, President Bush is a popular wartime president. His handling of the war on terrorism following Sept. 11, 2001, and his campaign against Iraq have broad support.
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But the shaky economy leaves him vulnerable to the same kind of criticism that was leveled against his father more than a decade ago. The president is trying to fend off charges that his economic plan is little more than recycled Republican propensity to lard the wealthy at the expense of lower wage earners and middle-class families.
Moreover, this time prominent Democrats are ready to take on the president, something many of them backed away from in 1992. They aren't making that mistake this time. The are not about to roll over and play dead simply because the president is getting high marks for his war policy.
The field of Democratic presidential hopefuls is expected to grow this week with the entrance of Sen. Tom Daschle of South Dakota. He will join Sen. John Edwards of North Carolina, Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts, Rep. Richard Gephardt of Missouri and Vermont Gov. Howard Dean.
Others likely to enter the fray include Sen. Joseph Lieberman of Connecticut and the Rev. Al Sharpton of New York.
Also giving the race a look are Sen. Joseph Biden of Delaware, Sen. Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Sen. Bob Graham of Florida.
The field has the potential of being one of the largest and one of the most interesting in many years. When the culling is completed -- earlier this go-round because the primary season is shorter -- Democrats likely will have a strong candidate. But more important, they will be going into the race knowing Bush lost the popular vote in 2000 and would have lost the electoral vote had only one other state tipped to Democrat Al Gore.
Bush and his team are aware of the facts of 2000. They are taking nothing for granted. Witness, for example, the time and effort the president put into the 2002 midterm elections. As 2004 nears, the president's political team is ready for anyone the Democrats throw at them.
Still, nothing is certain in politics. That's the lesson from 1992. When the president and his father get together these days, it's a lesson they probably discuss.
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