The potential scenarios that could play out over the next four days are abundant, as the Timberwolves could still land at high as No. 5 in the Western Conference playoffs and as low as No. 9. They did secure at least a top-10 finish and, thus, a spot in the play-in tournament Tuesday.
Everything else is still very much in the air. Still working in Minnesota’s favor is the abundance of tiebreakers it holds over most teams it neighbors in the standings.
The positive possibilities start with Minnesota start with the team going 2-0 over its final two regular-season games. That would guarantee the Timberwolves a top-eight seed, meaning they would only need to win one play-in game rather than two to reach the playoffs.
Even with a 2-0 finish, the most likely scenario is that Minnesota would land in the No. 7-8 play-in game. The winner of that game earns the No. 7 seed in the Western Conference playoffs, earning a likely first-round date with Memphis. The loser would move to the final play-in game against the winner of the No. 9-10 play-in game.
Teams do not want to land in the No. 9-10 play-in game, as that position requires you two win twice to reach the playoffs, and those wins equal a first-round playoff matchup with top-seeded Denver.
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The Timberwolves’ path to a top-six seed requires not only Minnesota winning its final two games, but also two of the Lakers, Clippers and Warriors tallying two more losses. The Lakers and Clippers played Wednesday night in Los Angeles, meaning one of those two teams has a loss. But the challenge for Minnesota is all three of those teams still have a “gimme” game remaining on the schedule. The Clippers host tanking Portland on Saturday, while the Warriors play in Portland on Sunday.
The Lakers host Utah on Sunday. The Jazz are already playing nowhere near their full compliment of players, and almost certainly will be eliminated from play-in contention by the weekend.
So Minnesota will need at least one wildly unlikely result to avoid the play-in tournament. A 2-0 finish would likely leave Minnesota in the No. 7 spot, considering whichever Los Angeles team loses Wednesday does also still have a game against the surging Suns remaining on the schedule.
Sunday’s Timberwolves game against the Pelicans — which will determine the tiebreaker between the two squads, who split their first two regular-season meetings — is almost certain to be a massive one. A loss to New Orleans will likely relegate the Timberwolves to the No. 9 seed, which would mean a must-win, home play-in game probably against Oklahoma City or Dallas.
The only way Sunday’s game would not carry stakes would be if New Orleans won Wednesday against Memphis and Friday against the Knicks, and Minnesota fell to San Antonio on Saturday. At that point, Minnesota would not be able to catch the Pelicans regardless of Sunday’s result.
There is no scenario in which New Orleans would not pass Minnesota on Sunday with a win over the Timberwolves.
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